SOURCE: Clara Hernanz Lizarraga and Ainhoa Goyeneche, Bloomberg
When Manuel Lavao planted some of Europe’s very first avocado orchards in 1978 in La Axarquía, a sun-soaked stretch of southern Spain, he helped usher in decades of growth for the continent’s exotic fruit sector. Almost a half-century later, he’s pulling up his trees by the thousands.
He’s not alone. As temperatures rise and reservoirs run dry, the southern coast of Spain is struggling to support commercial avocado farms. Shipping around 150 million kilograms (330 million pounds) of avocados last year, Spain was the world’s No. 3 exporter, trailing only Mexico and Peru among producing nations, according to data compiled by Rabobank.
“We have never known drought periods like this,” Lavao says, noting that his groves haven’t seen a frost in 15 years as the climate warms. “This is great for tourism but terrible for us.”
The Union of Small Farmers and Ranchers in Málaga province, which is home to La Axarquía, has estimated that this year’s avocado harvest will be 60% smaller than the previous one.
Water levels at La Viñuela reservoir, built in the 1980s partially to support the orchards of avocado and mango trees sprouting up in La Axarquía, recently fell to 7.57% of capacity, the lowest ever recorded. Farming is one of the main culprits—irrigated avocados are much more water intensive than the traditional rain-fed crops of fruits and vegetables they largely replaced. Reduced rainfall, a growing population and increased tourism have further strained supplies.
Around the globe, the changing climate is forcing farmers to reevaluate their choice of crops. In the US, for instance, North Dakota now has a longer growing season, allowing for the cultivation of corn and soybeans in some of the coldest parts of the state, and some California farmers have been able to expand into coffee. Winemakers in the Bordeaux region of France are being forced to harvest their grapes earlier.
A study commissioned by an umbrella group representing Spain’s agricultural and livestock producers estimates the country loses the equivalent of 6% of agricultural production to climate change annually.
The World Resources Institute, a nonprofit in Washington, DC, projects that by 2050, Spain will join the cohort of nations facing extremely high water stress, meaning those that use more than 80% of their renewable water supply for irrigation, livestock, industry and domestic needs.
“The lack of water and other climate extremes definitely restrict further expansion and growth of the Spanish produce industry,” says Cindy van Rijswick, a global strategist at Rabobank covering the farming and produce sectors.
As Spain dries out, water theft is on the rise. An eight-month probe involving 1,400 agents from Spain’s Civil Guard led to the arrest of 133 people nationwide last year, but hundreds of illegal boreholes irrigating agricultural fields continue to elude authorities.
To help safeguard Spain’s position in the roughly $18 billion global avocado market, some growers in La Axarquía are relocating to cooler climates. Among them is Antonio Ruiz García, who like Lavao was an early adopter and began cultivating the fruit in the 1970s. Earlier this year, García purchased about 12 hectares (30 acres) of land in Llanes, a picturesque coastal town on the country’s northern shoreline where the climate is milder and rain is plentiful. It’s “paradise for avocados,” says the 74-year-old farmer.
By García’s estimate, more than 30% of the avocado farms in La Axarquía have been abandoned because of persistent drought conditions. Those that remain are producing fruit that’s half the normal size, he says. Meanwhile, avocado growers up north have been able to double their yields. “We preferred to bet on northern Spain instead of Morocco,” says García, alluding to the flight of Spanish fruit and vegetable growers to North Africa, where wages are lower.
In addition to avocados, less common crops such as chayote, kiwano, passion fruit, physalis and pitaya are also starting to appear along Spain’s northern coast and other regions once considered too cold, says Mari Luz Iglesias, co-founder of crop consulting firm Iberian Exotics in Lisbon.
“These crops could not be grown before in this area,” says Iglesias, whose company is about to open an office in the northern Spanish city of Gijón to be closer to the action. “The difficult moment that tropical fruit producers in La Axarquía are going through suggests that it may be necessary to look for a new option, and the Cantabrian coast may be it.”
Back in southern Spain, Lavao uprooted 2,500 of his struggling avocado trees in August and September, with an additional 1,500 due for removal in the next month or two. He’ll replace some with mangoes, which require less water, but the rest of his land will lie fallow for now. The parched avocado trees will be repurposed as kindling.
“Here I am at age 86 switching my whole agricultural system and planning to harvest mangoes in four to five years,” he says.